Overview

July was a curious month. The first half of July is generally milder than the second half – but this year it was much warmer. The first half is generally wetter than the second half, but this year it was drier. All told, the month was warmer and a little drier than average.

Table 1 is a summary of monthly averages and totals at selected stations throughout the state. Table 2 lists daily temperatures and precipitation for most of the locations listed in Table 1. In Table 3, monthly precipitation totals throughout the state are listed. Figure 1 is a map showing the percentage of normal precipitation statewide for the Water Year.

Basin Summary

Here is a summary of water indicators at the end of the month, by river basin:

n.a. Not available
(1) Percent of normal June precipitation, from NOAA Cooperative sites
(2) Percent of normal seasonal precipitation (since Oct. 1), from NOAA Cooperative sites
(3) Percent of normal seasonal precipitation, from Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) SNOTEL sites
(4) Percent of normal June stream flow, from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
(5) Percent of normal seasonal stream flow (since Oct. 1), from USGS
(6) Surface Water Supply Index, from NRCS (-4 = very dry, 0 = normal, +4 = very wet)

Forecasts

The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) forecasts for August-October appear below. There is a higher likelihood of warmer than average temperatures and below-average precipitation in Oregon.

Oregon Climate Service predicts normal temperatures and precipitation for the next three months.

ENSO Update
Oregon Climate Service predicts normal temperatures and precipitation for the next three months.

ENSO Summary: Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), August 1, 2007

Summary: ENSO indicators continue to fluctuate. La Niña chance about 50:50.

The past three months have seen ENSO indicators fluctuate without any consistent trend being apparent. Periods of weakened Trade Winds, falling SOI and rising ocean temperatures have alternated with phases of strengthened Trade Winds, rising SOI and falling ocean temperatures. The month of July saw both, with the latter phase occurring at the end of the month so that overall there was a slight cooling of the ocean from June to July. The latest weekly surface temperatures of the eastern equatorial Pacific are approaching the La Niña threshold, but the SOI is about _5.

For a La Niña to develop, the relatively high frequency fluctuations of SOI, winds and ocean temperatures would need to stop and be replaced by a period of consistently stronger than average Trade Winds, positive SOI values and further cooling of the ocean. The latest runs from computer models continue to indicate a moderate chance of a La Niña occurring in 2007, although they're not indicating this as emphatically as a few months ago. Furthermore, the computer models failed to predict the slower cooling observed over the past six months; they were predicting much stronger cooling during the southern autumn and early winter.

The chance of a La Niña developing is probably about 50:50, but even if neutral conditions persist, much of the equatorial Pacific is likely to remain cooler than average. This situation would normally be associated with average to wetter than average seasons over eastern and northern Australia, especially if accompanied by positive SOI values.
Israeli Scientist Makes Solar Energy Viable

Climate and energy are inextricably linked. Nowadays it’s difficult to consider one of these without including the other.

Climate affects energy because energy usage varies according to climate. Hot summers, for example, create increased need for air conditioning; cold winters require more heating. Seasonal variations in demand are driven by climate as well. For example, the greatest energy demand in Arizona is during the hot summers. In Oregon, on the other hand, our summers are much more comfortable and many homes (such as mine) have no air conditioning, but demand is greater during the winter cold season.
Energy use affects climate because of side effects of energy production. Many energy facilities, such as power plants, produce air pollutants, which can affect climate. They also emit greenhouse gases, which are believed by many to have significant influence on global climate.

So it is that breakthroughs in energy production are far-reaching in their effects, and I got very excited this week when I read about a development in Israel involving solar energy.

For many years, engineers have attempted to find ways to produce solar-powered electricity which is competitive with other methods. The most common solar-electric technique involves use of “photovoltaic cells,” which convert sunlight directly into electricity. Unfortunately, these cells remain very expensive, despite many decades of research and testing. Until the costs of solar electricity at least approach those of conventional methods, it is difficult to envision large-scale adoption.

Now the exciting part: an Israeli scientist has developed a methodology that may make solar power viable and competitive. According to Prof. David Feiman , director of the National Center for Solar Energy near Sde Boker, Israel, "After 30 years of research on solar energy, my life's work of experiments in how to produce electricity from the sun, I can say this year that I know how to manufacture solar energy that will compete with conventional energy."

Feiman’s technique uses an inexpensive parabola-shaped glass plate to focus (and concentrate) energy, and its production per unit area is 1,500 times higher than typical solar collectors today.

The National Center for Solar Energy is now collaborating with an Israeli start-up company, Zenith Solar, to create a home system of solar cells based on this technology within about a year. And the Center has licensed its technology to Sollel, another Israeli company, which has signed a contract with the U.S. company Pacific Gas & Electric to build the largest solar power station in the world, in the Mojave desert in California, which will have about 7,000 such panels. It is due to go into service in about four years, providing 553 megawatts of electricity.

Feiman was born in Great Britain but has lived at Midreshet Sde Boker since 1976, when he began researching solar energy. A world expert in the field, he says the economic model he has built will allow a significant part of Israel's energy to go solar within the decade.

If a similar effect occurs in the U.S., it would fulfill many longstanding dreams and be of great significance to future American energy policy and usage.

Read more: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/890970.html

Hyperthermia Deaths of Children in Vehicles
by Jan Null, CCM Updated August 6, 2007
Complete report at http://www.ggweather.com/heat/index.htm

In 2007 there has been at least nineteen deaths of small children after being left inside a hot vehicle. Last year there were at least twenty-nine such fatalities in the United States due to hyperthermia after they were left in hot cars, trucks, vans and SUV's. This sadly followed forty-two child deaths in 2005. Since 1998 there have been at least a total of 323 of these needless tragedies. This study shows that these incidents can occur on days with relatively mild (i.e., ~ 70 degrees F) temperatures and can occur very rapidly.

STATISTICS

* Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 2007: 19
* Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 2006: 29
* Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 1998-2007: 340
* Average number of U.S. child hyperthermia fatalities per year since 1998: 36

Airbags vs. Hyperthermia Deaths

In the three-year period of 1990-1992, before airbags became popular, there were only 11 known deaths of children from hyperthermia.

In the most recent three-year period of 2004-2006, when almost all young children are now placed in back seats instead of front seats, there have been at least 110 known fatalities from hyperthermia...a ten-fold increase from the rate of the early 1990s. [Important note: This in no way implies that it is advocated that children be placed in the front seat or that airbags be disabled.]

Circumstances

In a recent study (Guard, A. & Gallagher, S. S. Heat-related deaths to young children in parked cars: an analysis of 171 fatalities—U.S., 1995-2002. Injury Prevention 11, 33-37) the circumstances that led to child hyperthermia fatalities were examined.
39% - child "forgotten" by caregiver
27% - child playing in unattended vehicle
20% - child intentionally left in vehicle by adult
14% - circumstances unclear

Average elapsed time and temperature rise

• 10 minutes ~ 19 deg F
• 20 minutes ~ 29 deg F
• 30 minutes ~ 34 deg F
• 60 minutes ~ 43 deg F
• 1 to 2 hours ~ 45-50 deg F

• “Cracking” the windows had little effect
• Vehicle interior color probably biggest factor